https://bpleon.com/ Essays and research notes on public markets. en-us https://bpleon.com/mu-fq3-eve-2026-06-23.html https://bpleon.com/mu-fq3-eve-2026-06-23.html Tue, 23 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 MU set a record high the day before its biggest print and the whole sell-side finally caught up. The bar moved with the price. The in-quarter beat is priced; the FQ4 guide and HBM4 ASPs decide the tape. PT stays $1,100; the $1,100 trim trigger hit June 18. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-19.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-19.html Fri, 19 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The hawkish-hold call died on the 2-year (+16bp, biggest Fed-day jump since 2008). Dots flipped to a 2026 hike. We own the miss. Then equities shrugged it off by Thursday. The week, graded. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-16.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-16.html Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 A three-year-high CPI got overrun by an Iran peace deal that collapsed oil to the low $80s. S&P rallied to ~7,550, 10Y fell to ~4.4%. Wednesday, the new Fed Chair debuts with a hawkish hold the market has already priced. The pain trade is up. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-08.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-06-08.html Mon, 08 Jun 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Broadcom's outlook + a hot 172K NFP cracked the rally. S&P closed Friday at 7,383.74, down 2.6% on the week. NVDA -13% from peak. Dell tested the bottom of our consolidation zone. Iran reignites today. CPI Wednesday is the next gate. https://bpleon.com/mu-june-outlook-2026-05-31.html https://bpleon.com/mu-june-outlook-2026-05-31.html Sun, 31 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 MU ran 38% in 17 trading days. June stops being about narrative and starts being about numbers. FQ3 prints June 24 — $33.5B / 81% GM / $19.15 EPS. PT stays at $1,100. Trim ladder continues. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-29.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-29.html Fri, 29 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Nine straight up weeks. Dell +33% best day on record. PCE 3.3% Y/Y. The 8-week mean reversion call didn't survive Friday's tape. The pivot is rotation within the AI complex, not out of it. https://bpleon.com/mu-after-ubs-2026-05-28.html https://bpleon.com/mu-after-ubs-2026-05-28.html Thu, 28 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Three weeks ago the sell-side median was around $549. On Tuesday UBS tripled their PT to $1,625 and Micron crossed $1T. The variant view became consensus. PT stays at $1,100. Now we trim. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-26.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-26.html Tue, 26 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 NVIDIA crushed, Walmart confirmed the consumer, the FOMC fractured. S&P 8-for-8 weeks. Friday's April PCE is the print that decides whether the Fed's hawkish minority had a point. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-18.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-18.html Mon, 18 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Wednesday May 20 is binary: FOMC minutes at 2pm, NVIDIA earnings after close. Plus Home Depot Tue + Walmart Thu testing the consumer. The setup that decides whether the 7-week ATH run extends or breaks. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-15.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-15.html Fri, 15 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Hot CPI, soft retail, record-low Michigan sentiment, no Fed cuts. The S&P made a new all-time high anyway. The AI cycle is doing all the work. https://bpleon.com/cooling-under-semis-2026-05-08.html https://bpleon.com/cooling-under-semis-2026-05-08.html Fri, 08 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 The market is not pumping because everything is fine. It is holding up because one powerful part of the market is still telling a better story than the economy. https://bpleon.com/mu-note-2026-05-05.html https://bpleon.com/mu-note-2026-05-05.html Tue, 05 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Why I'm pulling the price target on Micron pending the full through-cycle pitch. Discipline beats chasing the tape. https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-04.html https://bpleon.com/weekly-outlook-2026-05-04.html Mon, 04 May 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Soft-landing narrative meets sticky inflation, a concentrated AI rally, and an increasingly structural geopolitical tape. https://bpleon.com/fed-april-2026.html https://bpleon.com/fed-april-2026.html Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0700 Notes on the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting. The market is watching the rate path; it should be watching the institution.