Reports
Finished, written-up pieces — deep-dives on companies, sectors, and themes. PDF for easy reading and saving. New ones get noted in the writing feed.
Equity research initiation · October 2026
18-page initiation in the CFA Research Challenge format, with the three-statement and DCF model and a one-page tear sheet. HOLD with a $140 price target: hedged through 2027, contracted nuclear with Amazon and Meta, and earnings in line with consensus. The gap to the Street’s $218 average target is the discount rate, not the forecast.
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Single-name pitch · May 2026
Mid-cycle Micron at $750–$850; the market is pricing peak earnings at trough multiples. Reverse-DCF decomposition, HBM mix-shift contribution to the next cycle peak, mid-cycle EBIT margin normalisation, and the three observable kill-shots that would make me wrong.
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Equity research initiation · May 2026
14-slide initiation on Micron at $625 base case PT (Hold from $668). Conservative margin assumptions; structural HBM bull case at $1,000+ depends on three durability tests holding. Thesis: HBM4 volume ramp into NVIDIA Vera Rubin, CY26 capacity sold out under multi-year LTAs (including Micron's first-ever five-year customer agreement), structural DRAM tightness, and an earnings inflection that compounds through FY28E. Bull / Base / Bear with probability-weighted PT of $650, R/R 1.2:1.
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Full report
The preview covers the thesis, company, and AI-memory backdrop. The locked half is where the work lives: competitive positioning, the FQ2'26 print and forward financial model, the football-field valuation bridging to the $625 base case (and the structural-HBM bull case to $1,000+), Bull/Base/Bear scenarios, the catalyst timeline, and the risk grid. Drop your email and the full PDF unlocks below. No follow-up unless you opt in.
Tip: the HTML pitch at the top of this page has the same model with 9 inline charts, deep-link anchors, and the freshest version of every number. The PDF is the same thesis in 14 slides — useful if you want a single file to save or share.
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